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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-03-05T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-05T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29475/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears to have a bright core in initial frames before fading as it progresses throughout the SOHO LASCO C3 field of view. The source is a filament eruption centered around S40E35, but stretches between S25E20 to S55E50 with a southern deflection as it erupts. The eruption begins around 2024-03-06T20:00Z in SDO/AIA and GOES SUVI 304 with associated dimming visible in SDO/AIA 193, brightening in SDO/AIA 304, and minor moving/opening field lines in GOES SUVI 284. A brief post-eruptive arcade is also visible in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 starting around 2024-03-06T00:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-09T08:48Z (-6.08h, +8.77h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/03/05 21:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 10:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 5:50
POS Midpoint: 07:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.61
Travel Time: ~8.61 * 9:40 = 83:13

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-09T08:48Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5

Lead Time: 39.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-03-07T17:15Z

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